The Road to Recovery: New Research Identifies Priority Actions For Lower Fraser River Salmon

Wild Pacific salmon are struggling.

Salmon school in the lower Fraser River, BC. Image by Fernando Lessa

Fisheries closures in British Columbia have become the norm, with 'good years' for returning stocks becoming more and more rare and geographically isolated. Meanwhile, fisheries regulations have become more proactive, fisheries scientists are working to incorporate more data than ever to predict returns, and Indigenous communities are taking leadership roles in limiting harvest opportunities voluntarily when returns are poor. Yet the bad years keep coming.

The Fraser is the largest salmon-bearing river in British Columbia, supporting 54 unique populations, known as Conservation Units (CUs), of wild Pacific salmon, 19 of which breed in the lower Fraser River. Our new open-access study found that all 19 of these CUs are on a declining trajectory over the next 25 years. We also found that it’s not too late to improve their outlook if we invest strategically in their recovery.

When I tell people that I work in salmon conservation, they always ask 'so what do you think we need to do to save the salmon'? The answer is: it's complicated. However, for 19 populations of wild salmon in the lower Fraser River, I am now able to answer that question, thanks to our recent research applying a collaborative decision making framework called Priority Threat Management.

We found that without interventions, none of the 19 CUs examined in this study are likely to be assessed as “green status”, or healthy and able to sustain fisheries under Canada’s Wild Salmon Policy, in the next 25 years. This is despite three CUs being classed as green status at the time of the study, which tells us that things are only going to get worse for these salmon unless we pivot away from business as usual and make salmon restoration a priority.

Farm land butts up against salmon habitat in the lower Fraser River. Image by Fernando Lessa

For the lower Fraser, which has a legacy of converting salmon habitat into highways, urban and industrial developments, the most effective solution is an overhaul in habitat management. By implementing a combined habitat strategy that includes barrier removal, estuarine and freshwater restoration, improved policies for watershed management, and protection of remaining habitat, 14 of the 19 CUs are likely to achieve green status at a cost of $20 million per year for 25 years, or the annual equivalent of $4.25 per person in British Columbia. Doubling this investment and implementing all 11 identified management strategies along with a new co-governance framework between Indigenous and Crown governments to cooperatively manage salmon, could lead to the recovery of up to 17 CUs.

To discover the most cost-effective management strategies to recover salmon in the lower Fraser, our team led by Dr. Tara Martin at UBC reached out to over 100 salmon experts in the lower Fraser region, and brought almost 50 of them together in-person (pre-COVID) over three days to do a deep dive into this problem. Working together with Indigenous fisheries and lands managers, commercial fishermen, DFO stock assessment scientists and managers, we developed management strategies and estimated their benefit to salmon recovery, their cost and socio-political feasibility. To me, the experience of bringing all of these groups together for a common purpose was one of the most powerful parts of this project. The fact that we were able to come up with a clear roadmap for the future of these salmon populations together is incredible, and speaks to a shared commitment to salmon, and the ability of decision science frameworks like Priority Threat Management to help find solutions to complex conservation problems.

Group photo of many of the experts who participated in the in-person PTM workshop at UBC. Image by Jamie Myers

Priority Threat Management (PTM) is a conservation decision science framework developed by Tara and her colleagues that considers the predicted benefit, cost, and feasibility of management strategies to rapidly identify which strategies will have the greatest impact on the largest number of populations. Too often in conservation and management we identify the threats, or some potential solutions, but don't consider real-world costs and feasibility. Yet when we go to implement a management strategy there of course are costs, and the strategy may or may not work as intended. It shocks me now to think about how many management decisions are made without these crucial pieces of information. PTM is particularly effective because it brings together all relevant parties - in our case managers, scientists, fishers, local and Indigenous knowledge holders, and conservationists - to find these solutions together. It also uses these many facets of knowledge to make predictions about the actual benefit of implementing a management solution - the closest we can get to achieving 20/20 vision into the future.

Taking an integrated approach can highlight key pieces of data and potential solutions that could easily be missed. For example, a stock assessment biologist together with a commercial fisherman can say with high confidence how a change in fisheries management will play out for salmon populations. A lands manager and restoration biologist can tell you which sloughs salmon are dying in due to anoxic conditions and what it would take to restore that habitat. All of these ways of knowing are crucial to piecing together the big picture for salmon. PTM then helps us to quantitatively assess which pieces are likely to give us the biggest bang for our conservation buck.

The next step is for decision-makers, managers, conservationists, and the public to support these results and make a detailed implementation plan for the priority strategies. In our study, we found that implementing a co-governance framework for salmon management between Indigenous and Crown governments improves the outlook for salmon by increasing the success and likelihood of implementation of management strategies. This aligns with the trajectory that British Columbia and Canada are on, working towards reconciliation with Indigenous communities and recognizing that existing colonial frameworks for managing lands and resources are not only not working, but are also often in direct violation of Indigenous rights and title as defined by UNDRIP, DRIPA, and the Canadian constitution. While the path to reconciliation is even more complex than the path to salmon recovery, parts of these journeys can be walked together. Our research suggests that making an effort toward co-governance in the lower Fraser region will have significant benefits for salmon.

Salmon and habitat in the lower Fraser River. Images by Fernando Lessa

If we can commit to changing the way that we manage salmon and their habitats in the lower Fraser River, and implement these priority strategies in a timely manner, then in 25-years time "good years" should become the norm for wild salmon returns in this region. We have the answers. Now the question is: will we act on them in time?

For more information about our research and the Martin Conservation Decisions Lab, visit: https://www.taramartin.org/research/lower-fraser-river-salmon/

Acknowledgements

This research was conducted at the University of British Columbia Point Grey Campus, located in the traditional, ancestral, and unceded territory of the xwməθkwəy̓əm (Musqueam) People. Our study region is part of the traditional and unceded territories of the Coast Salish, Stó:lō, and St’àt’imc peoples. We gratefully acknowledge the contributions of many experts to this research, including: Katrina Connors, Eric Hertz, Charlotte Whitney, Cathryn Abbott, Lina Azeez, Keri Benner, Robert Bison, Dionne Bunsha, Chantal Caron, Diana Dobson, Ashley Doyle, Cameron Freshwater, Shawn Gabriel, Ian Hamilton, Ann-Marie Huang, Jason Hwang, Brittany Jenewein, Gerry Kristianson, Justin Laslo, Murray Manson, Jeremy Maynard, David Moore, Effie Ned, Murray Ned, Andy Olson, David Patterson, Dianne Ramage, Bob Rezansoff, Marcel Shepert, Phil Sherwood, Adam Silverstein, and Michael Willcox.

Funding for this research was provided by the Pacific Salmon Foundation, Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC) CGSD3-534335-2019 to LC and RGPIN-2019-04535, Liber Ero Chair in Conservation to TGM, and the generous support of Reid and Laura Carter. Cette recherche a été financée par le Conseil de recherches en sciences naturelles et en génie du Canada (CRSNG), [numéro de référence CGSD3-534335-2019; RGPIN-2019-04535].

Citation - Open Access

Lia Chalifour, Cassandra Holt, Abbey E. Camaclang, Michael J. Bradford, Ross Dixon, Riley J.R. Finn, Victoria Hemming, Scott G. Hinch, Colin D. Levings, Misty MacDuffee, Derek J.H. Nishimura, Michael Pearson, John D. Reynolds, David C. Scott, Uwe Spremberg, Steven Stark, John Stevens, Julia K. Baum, Tara G. Martin. 2022. Identifying a pathway towards recovery for depleted wild Pacific salmon populations in a large watershed under multiple stressors. Journal of Applied Ecology DOI: 10.1111/1365-2664.14239. Paper URL: https://besjournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1365-2664.14239

A version of this blog was published by The Applied Ecologist: https://appliedecologistsblog.com/2022/07/20/the-road-to-recovery-new-research-identifies-priority-actions-for-lower-fraser-river-salmon/